Oscar updates

The Soloist has been moved to 2009.  So, a big change in my predictions...Downey Jr. is out!  I really thought it was going 

 to be his year, but I stand by my decision that he isn't getting a nomination for Tropic Thunder.  Golden Globe nom...very likely, but I don't think it will go any farther then that.  You know, I think it's even possible he could get a Globe nom for Ironman.  It's not inconceivable.  But, I don't see any Oscar love this year.  

 I also think it will be wise to remove Josh Brolin for W.  He's great, but the movie isn't.  Too much critical ambiguity, and not long enough legs to go the distance.  Again, I think he will get a Globe nom...but go no further.

My question to myself is, who goes in the vacated spaces?  I'd like to put Brolin in Supporting for Milk, but, I'm not ready to remove Franco.  I'm still not sure they can both exist in the category.  The popular opinion is that Philip Seymour Hoffman will go Supporting for Doubt, and even though I still have...reservations... about the film...Hoffman, I think, is always a good bet.  

To fill in for Brolin's exit in the Best Actor category, I think I will just move Dicaprio up from reserve....for now.  

My charts as of today....

Best Actor 

Leonardo Di Caprio - Revolutionary Road

Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn - Milk

Brad Pitt - Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Best Actress 

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting married

Sally Hawkins - Happy Go Lucky

Angelina Jolie - Changeling

Kristen Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long

Kate Winslet - revolutionary Road

Supporting Actress

Tarji P. Henson - Benjamin Button

Samantha Morton - Synecdoche, New York

Rosemary dewitt - Rachel Getting Married

Misty Upham - Frozen River

Evan Rachel Wood - The Wrestler

( Marisa Tomei ) The Wrestler

Supporting Actor

Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt

Liev Schrieber - Defiance

Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire

James Franco - Milk

Best Picture

Australia

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

Milk

Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

coming soon....Best Director!